# Asian Rice Prices Hit a Near-Two-Year High as El Niño Cuts Production

> MKNIRALO — Business — Food · Agriculture

- Published: 2026-11-08
- Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
- Byline: Arjun — South Asia Conflict & Civilian Protection Observer
- Byline disclosure: Arjun is a house editorial byline maintained by MKNIRALO, not a claim of an independently verified individual. It does not imply ethnic affiliation, local access, interviews or security credentials; articles distinguish police-confirmed facts, community allegations and independently verified reporting.
- Author profile: https://mkniralo.com/authors/arjun/
- Tags: rice, El Niño, food prices, agriculture, Asia, food security
- Cover image: https://mkniralo.com/images/asian-rice-prices-two-year-high-el-nino-2026.svg

Thai export quotations reached $499 a tonne as El Niño heightens crop risks, but the global production outlook is more nuanced than claims of a decade-long first decline.

Asian export rice prices have climbed to levels last seen nearly two years ago, adding to concern that an unusually strong El Niño could tighten supplies just as importers return to the market. Thailand’s 5% broken white rice was quoted at $499 per metric ton on November 4, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association. Yet the evidence does not support every dramatic claim circulating with the rally: the latest global forecasts point to a downturn, but not a first decline in more than a decade.

## Thai Export Prices Reach a Near-Two-Year High

The Thai Rice Exporters Association’s weekly price table listed 5% broken white rice at $499 per metric ton on November 4, the highest level in its series since December 2024, according to the association and a Bloomberg report published by The Edge Malaysia. The benchmark is an export quotation, not a price paid by households. Its movement matters because Thailand is a major supplier to overseas buyers, and changes in its offers can influence the prices importers use when comparing origins and arranging new cargoes.

A Reuters market report on November 6 put Thai 5% broken rice at $490–$495 per ton for the week, up from $480 a week earlier, while Vietnam’s comparable grade reached $480–$490, its highest since December 2024. The Thai association’s $499 Wednesday quotation and Reuters’s later trader range are different snapshots, so they should not be treated as a single revised price. Bloomberg also reported Chicago rough-rice futures more than 80% higher since the start of 2026, signalling a sharp move in financial markets as well as physical export offers.

Sources:
- [.: สมาคมผู้ส่งออกข้าวไทย :: Thai Rice Exporters Association :: Thailand :.](https://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/price.htm) — Thai Rice Exporters Association
- [Asian rice price climbs near two-year high in inflation threat](https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/824639) — Bloomberg (republished by The Edge Malaysia)
- [Asia Rice: Vietnam, Thai rice prices hit near two-year highs as India slips](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/asia-rice-vietnam-thai-rice-prices-hit-near-two-year-highs-as-india-slips/articleshow/135627665.cms) — Reuters (republished by The Economic Times)

## A Record El Niño Raises Weather Risk

The climate signal is exceptional. Japan’s Meteorological Agency said the September 2026 sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3 region reached 4.0°C above normal, exceeding the previous record of 3.6°C set in December 1997. Its October outlook said the event had reached the strongest intensity in the agency’s record, which begins in 1949, and was likely to remain very strong through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The World Meteorological Organization also warned in September that the event was expected to intensify and alter rainfall and temperature patterns into 2027.

That does not mean every rice-growing area is experiencing the same drought. The JMA’s September assessment recorded below-normal precipitation in southeastern Southeast Asia, while FEWS NET linked India’s weaker and uneven monsoon to crop risks. El Niño shifts the odds of rainfall anomalies; it does not dictate identical conditions across a vast region. South and Southeast Asia contain many of the world’s largest rice producers and together account for more than half of global output, making local water shortages commercially significant even when harvests elsewhere remain strong.

Sources:
- [Global cereal production remains high but trade set to contract on logistical constraints](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
- [El Nino Monitoring and Outlook / TCC](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html) — Japan Meteorological Agency
- [2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts](https://fews.net/global/special-report/october-2026) — FEWS NET
- [Grain: World Markets and Trade](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
- [El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-extreme-weather-2027) — World Meteorological Organization

## The Global Forecast Is Falling, but Not for the First Time in a Decade

The latest forecasts confirm a lower global crop, but the claim that this is the first worldwide production decline in more than a decade is incorrect. USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates says the first year-to-year reduction in ten years applies to India’s rice production. Its world table shows milled-rice output falling from 545.91 million metric tons in 2025/26 to 533.85 million in 2026/27. USDA’s October Rice Outlook revised the 2026/27 figure further to 533.1 million tons, 800,000 tons below September and the lowest level in three years.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s November 6 update estimated 2026 rice production at 552.0 million tons, 2.5% below the previous season and the first contraction in four seasons. FAO cited poor producer margins as well as El Niño-related adverse weather, and said utilization was expected to exceed production. Its forecast differs in level from USDA’s because the agencies use distinct datasets and crop-year conventions, so the figures should not be combined. The consistent signal is a smaller crop after recent record output, not a proven decade-long global break.

Sources:
- [Rice Outlook: October 2026](https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/115630) — USDA Economic Research Service
- [Rice Outlook: October 2026](https://www.ricefarming.com/current-issue/rice-outlook-october-2026/) — Rice Farming
- [Global cereal production remains high but trade set to contract on logistical constraints](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
- [2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts](https://fews.net/global/special-report/october-2026) — FEWS NET
- [World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.pdf) — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist

## India and Thailand Face Different Production Pressures

India is the clearest example of the distinction. USDA’s September WASDE explicitly says India’s 2026/27 rice production is expected to record its first year-to-year reduction in ten years because of below-normal and uneven monsoon rainfall. FEWS NET’s October analysis, drawing on USDA estimates, quantifies the expected fall at 4.6%, or about 7 million tons. India nevertheless held 40.2 million tons of milled rice in reserve at the start of August, around three times its normal buffer, and USDA still projected record exports of 24 million tons with no export restriction.

Thailand’s main exposure is its irrigated off-season crop, rather than a uniform collapse across all growing areas. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecast 2026/27 production at 20.3 million tons, 2% below the previous year, as tighter water supplies and El Niño were expected to reduce off-season planting. The agency’s concern is especially relevant because this second crop depends heavily on irrigation allocations. If reservoir levels or water releases constrain planting, the exportable surplus could tighten later in the season, even if the main crop performs more steadily.

Sources:
- [Thailand: Grain and Feed Monthly](https://fas.usda.gov/data/gain/2026/09/thailand-grain-and-feed-monthly) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
- [2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts](https://fews.net/global/special-report/october-2026) — FEWS NET
- [Grain: World Markets and Trade](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
- [World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.pdf) — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist

## The Philippines Shows How Import Demand Reaches Consumers

The Philippines is an important transmission point between export markets and household food costs. USDA’s trade tables identify it as the world’s largest rice importer, while Reuters reported that Philippine buyers had resumed purchases from Vietnam, helping lift export quotations. The government’s October 2026 consumer-price release, published by the Philippine Statistics Authority on November 5, showed rice inflation of 20.7% year on year, up from 20.3% in September. The figure measures the change in the rice consumer-price index, not a single national peso-per-kilogram market quote.

The timing matters: wholesale export prices do not pass through instantly or one-for-one to supermarket and wet-market prices. Import contracts, freight, milling, domestic harvests, inventories, currency movements and government policy all affect the final bill. Still, the Philippine data show that rice costs were already rising faster than a month earlier, while buyers were active in regional export markets. For a country dependent on imports to close its supply gap, another period of high overseas offers could make food-price management harder.

Sources:
- [Asia Rice: Vietnam, Thai rice prices hit near two-year highs as India slips](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/asia-rice-vietnam-thai-rice-prices-hit-near-two-year-highs-as-india-slips/articleshow/135627665.cms) — Reuters (republished by The Economic Times)
- [Summary Inflation Report Consumer Price Index (2018=100): October 2026](https://psa.gov.ph/content/summary-inflation-report-consumer-price-index-2018100-october-2026) — Philippine Statistics Authority
- [Grain: World Markets and Trade](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

## A Tighter Market Is Not Yet a Global Shortage

The outlook is serious, but it is not evidence that the world is running out of rice. FAO said global rice reserves were expected to decline, yet record carry-in stocks should cushion the drawdown and leave inventories at 216.5 million tons, the second-highest level on record. USDA’s October outlook likewise described higher overall supplies because larger beginning stocks more than offset lower production. Such buffers matter: the amount harvested in one season is only one part of the balance between stocks, consumption, trade and the timing of shipments.

The next signals to watch are water allocations for Thailand’s off-season planting, India’s harvest and export pace, and the scale of import buying by the Philippines and other large customers. Only about 12% of global rice production is traded internationally, and India supplies a large share of those exports, so policy or weather shocks can move traded prices disproportionately. For now, the evidence points to rising regional prices and a narrower production outlook, with stocks still providing a cushion. A sustained shortage would require further losses or trade disruption, not just a powerful El Niño.

Sources:
- [Thailand: Grain and Feed Monthly](https://fas.usda.gov/data/gain/2026/09/thailand-grain-and-feed-monthly) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
- [Rice Outlook: October 2026](https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/115630) — USDA Economic Research Service
- [Rice Outlook: October 2026](https://www.ricefarming.com/current-issue/rice-outlook-october-2026/) — Rice Farming
- [Global cereal production remains high but trade set to contract on logistical constraints](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
- [2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts](https://fews.net/global/special-report/october-2026) — FEWS NET

## About this article

This article reflects the public sources available on the publication and update dates shown above. For developing stories, follow the linked source pages for subsequent statements or decisions.

## Sources and further reading

- [.: สมาคมผู้ส่งออกข้าวไทย :: Thai Rice Exporters Association :: Thailand :.](https://www.thairiceexporters.or.th/price.htm) — Thai Rice Exporters Association (published 2026-11-04) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Asian rice price climbs near two-year high in inflation threat](https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/824639) — Bloomberg (republished by The Edge Malaysia) (published 2026-11-05) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Asia Rice: Vietnam, Thai rice prices hit near two-year highs as India slips](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/asia-rice-vietnam-thai-rice-prices-hit-near-two-year-highs-as-india-slips/articleshow/135627665.cms) — Reuters (republished by The Economic Times) (published 2026-11-06) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Thailand: Grain and Feed Monthly](https://fas.usda.gov/data/gain/2026/09/thailand-grain-and-feed-monthly) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (published 2026-09-04) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Rice Outlook: October 2026](https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/115630) — USDA Economic Research Service (published 2026-10-14) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Rice Outlook: October 2026](https://www.ricefarming.com/current-issue/rice-outlook-october-2026/) — Rice Farming (published 2026-10-29) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Global cereal production remains high but trade set to contract on logistical constraints](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/) — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (published 2026-11-06) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [El Nino Monitoring and Outlook / TCC](https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html) — Japan Meteorological Agency (published 2026-10-09) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Summary Inflation Report Consumer Price Index (2018=100): October 2026](https://psa.gov.ph/content/summary-inflation-report-consumer-price-index-2018100-october-2026) — Philippine Statistics Authority (published 2026-11-05) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [2026-2027 El Niño food security impacts](https://fews.net/global/special-report/october-2026) — FEWS NET (published 2026-10-06) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [Grain: World Markets and Trade](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf) — USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (published 2026-09) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-extreme-weather-2027) — World Meteorological Organization (published 2026-09-03) (accessed 2026-11-07)
- [World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates](https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0926.pdf) — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Office of the Chief Economist (published 2026-09-11) (accessed 2026-11-07)